[Aaron W.]

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I'm not a pokerstove junkie myself and use it sparingly, but it's really much better than the alternative which is making the bad assumptions that are in your analysis. We are better than 50% against AK as QQ vs. AK is much closer to 54-57%, depending on whether AK is suited(Again, less combinations of suited). That percentage also assumes that villain sees all 5 cards, which is not a guarantee.

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Villain is going to see the turn almost regardless of how the flop comes down and how the action comes out, and if there isn't too much action it is not uncommon to see him on the river because the pot is gigantic.

I like the 50% number in this case because in a huge pot because I'm also in a spot where I generally don't have some RIO postflop as I will flop a hand that is strong (ie, overpair) and unlikely to improve, but is subject to being drawn out on -- assuming I'm not in an overpair vs better overpair situation.

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It is much better than saying "well, we have 37%(short) and the coldcallers take some of it."

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How much better is it? My heads up estimate was 37%. Stove gives 40%. Going from hot/cold preflop sims to real life play, a few percent is basically negligible as the effects of postflop play swamp the equity difference, especially with a hand like QQ.

I understand being hesitant to use off-the-cuff estimates, but I think you're overstating your case here.