[Dromar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not getting into fights with you. I completely disagree with you about not defending your vote. I think it's a great idea for everyone to defend their vote because then there are a variety of ideas on the table. Rather than saying [censored] you, I give up, why don't you tell us what you would do in the situation? I'm not saying who's right and wrong, I'm just sharing what I think because I think it's best if we all do that.

If you don't like the structure of this post (you seem to be the only one) then disregard it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that we don't have to defend our votes either, my point is that as soon as somebody is convinced their play is not optimal, they should be allowed to change. I think I'm not the only one agreeing that many moves were made because people voted before listening to others arguments. Then Dromar (nothing personal, I like the idea of the thread) disregard the discussion and just pick the most voted option (he made another poll when it came to bet sizing as far as I remember).

Obviously I'd call it's a no brainer in that spot with J8o, it's a call with ATC btw. I'm still talking about the 74o.

I'm giving up the thread b/c there's no point in discussing any play if it'll not affect the flow of the game, since I believe is one of the goals of making a thread that covers one entire match. There's still a point on discussing every hand separately here because we can see every play from the start and so everybody has the same info to work with, but is far away from the potential one thread like that have.

IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really surprised to come back and see 9 posts about this.

Anyway, here's my thoughts:

1. I realized shortly in that a problem existed in regards to the format of the thread. Namely, the structure was

Question -> Vote -> Discuss -> Move on

But moving on was based on the vote and not the discussion (except in regards to betsizing). I decided to stick with it in the meantime because a) lots of people tend to stick with their original decision despite discussion from other players, b) many of the decisions were basically no-brainers that didn't warrant discussion, and c) having multiple voting sessions over any decision that synthesized discussion would be too time-consuming (IMO). I'll agree that an improvement could definitely be made there.

One thought I had on improving the process would be to have discussion before voting, so people can hear all the possibilities. Of course, then the problem occurs for the no-brainer decisions: When am I going to decide when the discussion should end and when the voting should begin. The first idea is to have open discussion until someone says "move on," but this could cause premature moving on, or on the other end of the spectrum, stagnation as we all sit there not discussing the hand and not moving on.

But enough about that. I think we all agree that J8o is an easy call here. I disagree with the claim that we call here with ATC though. Easiest example is 32o, which has 32% equity against a random hand, and we need about 37.5% equity to call here even if he's pushing any two, which we can't assume. So there are obviously hands we fold here.

mb6tour, while fold equity is really important in this stage of a HU match, the plain and simple fact is that we were unfortunate enough to have had a hand that was too weak to push, even with fold equity taken into account. Here's a quick example of how I came to this conclusion:

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 45

(SB)Hero 455
(BB)Villain 2545

Hero posts 25, Villain posts 50. Hero has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, so we're looking at pushing for 455 to win 50. Quick assumption: he calls top 40% and folds 60% (we can adjust this if we find the decision to be close or if we decide that he'll call much looser or tighter than this. Also, download pokerstove for help with this stuff if you don't have it.). Then 3 of 5 times we win 50 (+50), and 2 of 5 times we play a 910 chip pot with 74o. Our equity against top 40% with 74o is ~32%. Then we are entitled to 32% of the 910 chips when he calls. (.32)(910) = ~290. So our EV is 290 - 420 (what we'll have minus what we would have if we folded) = -140.

Then our EV of pushing is (3/5)(+50) + (2/5)(-140) = -130.

So we see that if he calls top 40% against our push, the amount we lose as a result of his calling greatly outweighs the amount we win from fold equity. As it turns out, for this push to be profitable, villain would have to fold medium off-suit aces and lower, and also fold 22-55 (found from pokerstove @ top 24%). This seems unlikely, so we're forced to fold.


As for you "giving up the thread," that's too bad, but not all that relevant. See my next post.