Re: 2 pair river call?
I think this would be a terrible fold.
A mere 40 hands worth of stats and no reads? We have no idea how Villain plays postflop. That should be a strong warning against making fancy folds in 11.5 BB pots.
Look at the flop that he bet:
Flush draw - bust
Three OESDs - all bust
Six gutshots with possible backdoor flushes - all bust
Top pair - you're good
Middle pair - you're good
Small pocket pair - you're good
How about an ace? He could have A8/A7/A3 but most of the time that would raise the turn. He could have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] but that's both a potential PFR and a potential turn raise. We also have reasonable reason to believe Button mucked an ace. Conclusion: an ace is certainly possible but it isn't that likely.
Could he have a three? Certainly, but consider the implications of putting him on a three. Anyone who would bet the flop with a three is obviously prone to retarded aggression. But if he's prone to retarded aggression then how can you justify an 11.5-1 fold?
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