[kyro]

My plays:

Record: 16-11-3 +6.84u
ATS: 10-5-3 +7.56u
Totals: 6-6-0 -0.72u

Colts -12.5 (-110)
Risk 2u to win 1.82u

This looks like such a donkey pick from all angles, and yet I don't care too much. DVOA has Indy as about a TD favorite in Atlanta here, and yet I'm taking Indy -12.5. Why? Atlanta has no redeeming qualities. They can't run, they can't pass, they can't stop the run, they can't stop the pass. DeAngelo Hall may be able to keep Reggie Wayne more in check than most, but with Clark getting another week to recover and the rest of Indy's WRs hopefully getting on the same page as Manning, I expect Indy to finally get their offense rolling and win big.

Colts/Falcons U42
Risk 2u to win 1.82u

This line isn't nearly as juicy as the Chiefs line last week, but I still don't think we can expect Atlanta to score very much. 7-10 is a good estimate, and while I expect Indy to turn things around, I think it's a bit too early to think they'll start hanging 35 on a team with this squad. I think we're looking at a 28-7 game here. I'd say 31, but the Colts don't have a kicker. I realize that I'm taking a spread of -12.5 and an under of 42 here, which is counterintuitive, but call it a reverse correlated parlay. I lose both of these bets very infrequently, as the Falcons are going to struggle to score 14 against a highly underrated Colts defense.

Dallas/NYJ O47
Risk 1u to win .91

The second best offense against the worst defense. I mean, we can expect to see 30+ from Dallas more often than not. The Jets O isn't as bad as people would like to think, and I expect to see them put up almost 20 points.