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Old 04-02-2007, 01:19 PM
John Kilduff John Kilduff is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,903
Default Re: How Long Will Iran Hold the British Sailors?

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when will you bloodthirsty hawks realize that even the most warmongering in the US and UK governments understand that bombing Iran would be a really really really bad idea?

The "hostage charade" will probably go on for another week or so until both sides figure out how they can get out of it while saving face and claiming victory.

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In my opinion the Iranians should not be allowed to save face in this matter as they clearly engaged in a hostile and illegal act. Many would call it an act of war and technically they would probably be right. I'm not suggesting that Iran should be bombed but they should be made to understand that they cannot just take hostages like that and get away with it with no adverse repercussions.

Think of the future: at some point you have to show your adversary that they just can't keep stealing your blinds and being over-aggressive with impunity - and especially that they can't keep pulling illegal angle-shots. Iran has been doing those things with supplying shaped explosives to fighters in Iraq, which have killed many Americans, and has had Iranian Revolutionary Guard advisors inside Iraq, and has now illegally taken the British sailor hostages who were on peaceful U.N.-mandated anti-smuggling patrol duty in non-Iranian waters.

Every time the mullahs' aggressions and provocations are appeased, they become emboldened. Letting them off the hook would be a bad metagame strategy this time (in my opinion). Unfortunately, I am unclear on what a good response would be, but allowing these guys to get away with things like this is just wrong, and bad for future hands, too.

That would be like letting an adversary get away with a very aggressive and illegal move in a high stakes poker game when you know that this opponent will do such things even more in the future if they succeed this time. Just because the opponent lies about it to the Floor, does not mean the other players or the principal victim should let that opponent get away with it in the interest of saving face and maintaining (relative) harmony. Iran needs: 1) to not be allowed to get away with this, and 2) to feel significant adverse repercussions in order to discourage rather than encourage future illegal acts of aggression. Again I don't know what the proper specific response should be, but in my opinion it should be in keeping with the above principles.
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