Re: Another Ace on the turn
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Allow me to propose an alternate game.
There are 6 marbles in a box 3 white and 3 black. You take out one marble (___LOOK AT IT___) and hide it and offer me 15 to my 10 that its black.
I accept the bet. Now you draw a random marble from the box, and place it outside. Both of us see that it is black. Now you make an offer of doubling the stakes or retracting the bet.
What shud I do? How shud I deal with the new information that has been presented given that you have already seen the hidden marble, and accept/decline any alteration in our original bet??
is this new information relevant at all??
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Clearly, you should refuse all bets before or after seeing the second marble. I should only offer the bet if I know I win it. There's no new information, because my offering the bet already told you the color of the hidden marble.
If that assumption is not true, if I sometimes offer bets that lose for me, then the new marble could have some information (also, your new offer could have some information). But in order to assess it mathematically, I have to know how you decide which bets to offer.
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