Re: Another Ace on the turn
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Ok, let's play a game. Forget poker. Say I have bag containing 1000 marbles. One is white and 999 are black. We have an independent third party select one marble and hide it where neither of us can see it. I then foolishly decide to bet 10 dollars against your 100 that the marble is white. You immediately agree since you’re laying 10-1 odds on a 1000-1 shot. At this point the odds that the marble chosen is white are .0001. I now blindly remove 998 marbles from the bag, all of which turn out to be black. I then offer you the chance to retract the bet. Do you accept? According to your theory you shouldn’t because “What has happened has happened. there is no probability anymore.”
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I like the idea of this game. It definitely helps in simplifying things.
Allow me to propose an alternate game.
There are 6 marbles in a box 3 white and 3 black. You take out one marble (___LOOK AT IT___) and hide it and offer me 15 to my 10 that its black.
I accept the bet. Now you draw a random marble from the box, and place it outside. Both of us see that it is black. Now you make an offer of doubling the stakes or retracting the bet.
What shud I do? How shud I deal with the new information that has been presented given that you have already seen the hidden marble, and accept/decline any alteration in our original bet??
is this new information relevant at all??
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