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Old 06-12-2006, 12:26 PM
Tom1975 Tom1975 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 932
Default Re: Another Ace on the turn

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BUT...
Does the fact that this is a single instance matter?
What has happened has happened. there is no probability anymore.
In that case, the opponent starts with what he has.



[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, let's play a game. Forget poker. Say I have bag containing 1000 marbles. One is white and 999 are black. We have an independent third party select one marble and hide it where neither of us can see it. I then foolishly decide to bet 10 dollars against your 100 that the marble is white. You immediately agree since you’re laying 10-1 odds on a 1000-1 shot. At this point the odds that the marble chosen is white are .0001. I now blindly remove 998 marbles from the bag, all of which turn out to be black. I then offer you the chance to retract the bet. Do you accept? According to your theory you shouldn’t because “What has happened has happened. there is no probability anymore.”
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