[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]

a lot of those prospects are blocked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Crisp is getting traded, so Ellsbury's not blocked. Even right now Ellsbury's not blocked. Lester's only blocked by choice. He's not a big deal anyway, though. It also doesn't really matter if they're blocked; ever heard of replacement cost?

[ QUOTE ]
a lot of prospects flame out.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of big leaguers eat themselves out of a job. Or can't play a position anymore. Hmmm, sound familiar? Or don't come close to living up to the back end of their contract.

[ QUOTE ]
plus, you have to look at what is readily available vs. what is scarce. one of the hardest things in the league to land is a RH power hitter in his prime, playing for a salary that is actually below his MORP. i can think of only a handful in the league right now, and almost none of them are available.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is hilarious.

What is more scarce than a young, MLB-ready, under-control-for-six-cheap-years CF that would already be a top 10 CF?

How many are those again? Grady Sizemore? Curtis Granderson? And how many are available? Oh yeah, none of them. You're arguing against yourself. Young, high-productive cheap pre-arb eligible players are the scarcist commodity in the MLB; you have to create them yourself because they are NEVER available. Nevermind that Ellsbury plays a key defensive position while Cabrera will be playing... 1B. Wow, let's dramatically overpay for Cabrera to play 1B for us just so we can give him a monstrous contract a couple years down the road.

Unless trading for Cabrera gets him to sign a below-market contract a la Beckett, it makes no sense, because the price is also going to be way more than Ellsbury and Lester.

[ QUOTE ]
big market teams don't maximize their MORP surpluses because you can't compete every year just relying on rookies and arb-year guys. you can be good at times on a short payroll (like the rockies were this year) but fans of big market teams are not going to tolerate a bunch of down years while you replenish your system or deal with prospects who flame out / start badly.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's amazing. It's also irrelevant.

[ QUOTE ]
masterson's projected MORP would be in the neighborhood of 20MM right now up through his arb years. ellsbury's is around 55. lester: 18. none of these guys are untouchable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't know about you, but to me 55 is worth a lot more than 20 or 18, nevermind that I'm sure Ellsbury's upcoming PECOTA projection is going to be fabulous and up that MORP even more, while Cabrera's will only go down once you figure he's only playing 1B.

[ QUOTE ]
plus he has a higher marginal value because the extra, elite WARP levels he provides are more likely to put the team over the hump, into the playoffs or towards a championship, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's too bad that doesn't help the Red Sox because they're already a lock to make the playoffs for 08 and in amazing position to continue to make the playoffs for a long long time, so you're risking Cabrera sending you into the sunk cost zone of 100+ wins that you don't need.

[ QUOTE ]
look at some of nate silver's writing on marginal MORP values of star players for contending teams for an explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who is this Nate Silver you speak of?

[ QUOTE ]
if cabrera for lester + ellsbury is on the table, the sox do it in a heartbeat.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's too bad it's going to take significantly more to get him.