[HatesLosing]

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Including your fold equity you are probably something like 70% against his range. It's not a close decision.

Go ahead and rewrite the book on poker.

/thread

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Assume your "70% with FE" is correct. Let's see... push and win a pot that gives you a *little* bit better chance at finishing top 2 70% of the time and screws you over badly 30% of the time, or be safe and 100% of the time maintain your position as chip leader where you have OVER a 70% chance of finishing top 2 as it stands... hrmmmm...

Let's also consider that FE isn't as big of a deal here as you might first think because a lot of coinflip hands he will still call you with (you don't want to play a coinflip here either) and you certainly aren't going to make him fold hands that have you beat badly. Again, I also don't think that winning this pot is going to significantly help you finish top 2 enough to justify the risk you take on.

You aren't going to get called very often by the hands that you have beat badly, because he's more likely to just open shove the pairs you have beat badly. This means that when you're called, you're usually in a coinflip or way behind.

Can you have the philosophy of "insta push here 100% of the time" and still be a winning player? Sure. But winning players make bad decisions sometimes, and this is one IMO. Pushing is wrong here.. you need a read on your opponent for pushing to be correct.

Now if you want to argue I'm wrong and want to present a solid and logical argument, fine. But the most troubling thing about your attitude/post is that you act like it's an "obvious push" when there are TONS of very good players with ROI's that are about near the theoretical limit that *do not* push in this spot.