Thread: T7s vs lagtag
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Old 11-12-2007, 05:45 PM
KitCloudkicker KitCloudkicker is offline
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Default Re: T7s vs lagtag

[ QUOTE ]
is he raising the flop with anything but a strong 6 (A6s/K6s only imo - unlikely he's overlimping Q6s), flush draw, 22/33/66 or 54s? i think 54s is easily in his range. does c/ring turn make sense against this range? i don't think so. i don't see why he'd bet flush draws 4 way.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, the turn play didnt occur to me at the time to be wrong. but think about it.

imo, this turn raise is easily one of those "exploitable" plays that elindauer mentioned in the micros thread.

at 2+2, we are conditioned to take the following actions:

1) if our hand is showdownable but vulnerable, make a move to drive others out of the pot (if it is of good size)
2) if our hand is very powerful, make a move to trap others into the pot

in a vacuum, sounds like good strategy, right? the problem is that it fails to take into account:

1) main villains hand range
2) other opponents hand ranges
3) 3 bet range of main villain
4) calling range of opponents


here, miles is absolutely right. no good player is betting a naked draw into this many opponents on the river. he'll def bet a 6, might bet a pair+draw, and def bets monsters and other such strong hands.

if i CR the turn, sure I drive out BB and limper. but what am I driving out?

1) gutshots. they probably arent calling if i lead turn anyway
2) very weak pair draws that again probably arent callign if i lead turn, and even if, are drawing very slim

in other words, i'm worried about driving out hands that are already in really bad shape, and risking getting 3 bet by a much better hand (as well as a bluff).

this turn is a bet/call. there is no other way to play it imo.
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