Re: Swings in NLCASH
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TNixon, you are correct by saying that ROR is a decent way to calculate the probability of a 20 BI downer
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Umm...PLEASE don't get us mixed up. Once I'll forgive. Do it again and I start throwing [censored].
jay_shark is saying it's a decent way. In fact, what he's been saying is that for any fixed number of hands, the probability of having a 20BI downer has to be *less* than the probability of your RoR for 20 buyins. Which is obviously false.
I'm saying it's NOT a decent way. In fact, it's an completely horrible, thoroughly useless way of even trying to *approximate* the risk of having a 20BI downer over X hands, and has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on reality.
Which jives quite perfectly with your real-life experience, thank you very much.
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