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Old 06-07-2007, 03:47 PM
Silent A Silent A is offline
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Default Re: Tourney situation. Omaha version of classic Holdem AA question

Folding in these situations should be saved for one of the following scenarios:

1) you're on the bubble in a super satellite (1st place = 24th place)

2) you entered a tourney that is worth a significant % (say 20% or more) of your bankroll and squeaking into the money will give you a lot of money by your standards, and you'll go tilty if you lose. (of course, you shouldn't be playing this tourney in the first place).

Also, let's get something clear about the EV of folding vs pushing. At this stage of the tourney, your chip value is still very close to your $ value. Based on the prize pool, the total # of chips in play should be very close to 1 million, so the final 24 will have an average of around 40k chips. As such your 20K stack is worth about $60 and a 43K stack is worth about $130.

The EV of a push is, assuming 2/3 equity, is:

EV = (2/3)*130 - 60 = $27

In order for this to be a -EV play, the $ value of a 43K stack must be only 50% more than a 20K stack. There is absolutely no way that this is the case here.
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