[josh_x]

I need to work on this, so thanks for the post.

1. We are ~4-1 to hit, he is offering us 3-1, so if we can expect to make $40 on the river then a call is +ev. I definately think we can and so folding is out. Hopefully the following math is correct in figuring out how often he needs to fold for a push to be +ev.

** I started to type up some stuff, but then realised something: If we are going to be at least calling the 40, then effectively the pot is already 160, right? so...

120 in the pot, 40 to call which i already will. So the pot is basically 160, i have 20% of that. So that means if he folds i win the 80% that wasn't mine, or $128. If he calls me then i get 20% of my push, + 20% of his call. Which is like losing 60% of the 'sidepot'. So...

(x*128) + (1-x)(0.6*-240)
= 128x +(1-x)(-144)
= 128x - 144 + 144x
144 = 272x
x = 0.52

So if he folds 52% of the time then a push is +ev compared to calling :s. I am really unsure if this is correct. If it is, there has to be a better way right?

that took too long, #2 later...