Things to Consider
I still stand by my decision to check on the river, here are a few reasons why.
1) I still don't expect TT to call a shove. Obviously, this player at this point in time did, but given the information I had, I'd expect TT to fold a significant majority of the time
2) TT is pretty high on the list of the range of hands we beat. Does he call with T9? A7? Probably not.
3) It's unlikely, but possible he was slowplaying a hand that had us beat and got scared when the heart fell.
4) He too is scared by the heart, and should be somewhat less likely to call a river bet with the heart there.
5) The truth is that most players don't want to put there entire stack in during level 1 in this tourney with one pair, regardless of the action up to the river.
6) Let's say we only get a call 10% of the time when we are ahead. How often do we have to be ahead for a shove to then be correct? Let's round the numbers and make the river shove pot sized. We then have to be ahead 91% for it to be +cev. Then factor in tournament survival concepts, and the number is > 91% (the facts that the blind levels are 30 minutes, the payout is flat, and Jason is an expert player only makes this number even bigger).
7) Our opponent could have made two pair on the river and been afraid to bet, possibly because of the flush card, or perhaps because he didn't think nines over fours was worth value betting.
8) This is kind of restating #6, but the value of chips we lose when we are wrong is far greater than the value of the chips we win when we are right.
These are just some random thoughts I had about the hand that I wanted to make sure everyone was considering. I imagine some people haven't thought of many of these things yet in regards to thsi hand.
|