Re: pay off?
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utg is a spazz
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There is your answer. The reasons for raising the flop:
1. Your hand range has been narrowed to AsKs, AJ, AA-QQ. Given this, BB can't continue with a pocket pair. Even continuing with QT for 2bets is dubious on this paired, flushing board.
2. Once BB is out of the way, you can actually win UI some % of the time. While I agree that the majority of UTG's range contains a pair, some of it doesn't. Also, some of those pairs lose to a board pairing Jack.
3. Getting 3bet ain't that bad.
Board: Js 9s 9h
Hand 0: 62.982% 62.88% 00.10% 13695 22.50 { KK-JJ, 99, AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 37.018% 36.91% 00.10% 8040 22.50 { AsKs }
Vs. this tight 3betting range, you're still getting back 74% of what you put in if it is HU.
4. Getting 3bet, or having BB not fold, is a great way to find out, with little equity loss, just where our AsKs ranks right now. I'm not a big fan of "raising for info", but in this case, raising has the nice side effect of giving us info.
5. You DO get a free card often. I feel that you are more likely to get a free card than you are to get 3bet, but from what you said, you don't, and you're the one who knows UTG.
6. There are many holdings for UTG for which you are gaining equity by raising as you have 15 outs.
In summary, you potentially lose very little by raising the flop, while standing to gain a bunch. You fold out chops, 2-3outers, and winners from the BB. Frequent free card. Info.
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