Thread: LO8 - Too Weak?
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Old 08-02-2007, 03:11 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Default Re: LO8 - Too Weak?

Fish - It's actually a close decision.

As simulated against four opponents with random hands (which your opponents admittedly don't exactly have), one of the four will have flopped a higher straight roughly 24% of the time and one of the four will have flopped an identical straight roughtly 18% of the time. Thus roughly two hands out of five, one of your opponents will have also flopped a straight. And one of your four opponents will have flopped a set roughly 15% of the time.

When you get to the river, your hand will be the best (or tied for the best) roughly 32% (same simulation). Will an opponent who flopped the same non-nut straight as you still be in on the action or not? (Nobody knows the exact answer to that, as it obviously depends on how your opponent who also would have played the straight plays after the flop). If so, since there will come to be a back-door low hand roughly one time out of four, and if nobody folds a hand that would go on to beat your straight<ul type="square">• 32%*.82*.75 you scoop
• 32%*.82*.25 you split with low
• 32%*.18*.75 you split with an identical high, and
• 32%*.18*.25 you get quartered.
• about 3% you scoop with a miscellaneous better hand than a straight, and
• about 64% you lose.

That's
• 20% you scoop with your straight
• 7% you split with low
• 4% you split with an identical high, and
• 1% you get quartered,
• 3% you scoop with a miscellaneous better hand than a straight, and
• 64% you lose.[/list]The numbers add up to 99% instead of 100% because of the way I rounded. No big deal; pretty crude anyhow.

The question is, "Can you knock someone off a hand that would beat or tie you if that opponent continued?"

I don't know the answer. I think in a very tight game, maybe. But in a very loose game, probably not. It really does depend on how an opponent who might have ended up with a better hand than you plays.

I'd generally bet this flop and see what happens. You might win the thing right there. If people call, you have to be wary of being up against a better straight, and/or a flush draw, and/or a set or two pairs (which are full house draws). And then you have to go through the mental effort of figuring out what your opponent may hold.

If you bet the flop and get raised, it could either be from somebody with
1. a better straight, possibly with re-draws to a flush and/or boat,
2. the same straight as you, possibly with re-draws,
3. somebody with a flush draw, possibly with outs for a higher straight and/or full house, or
4. somebody with a set or two or three pairs, possibly with additional outs for something better than a queen high straight.

Thus a flopped non-nut hand is not an easy hand to play. you're more likely to get out-played by someone with a worse hand than to out-play somebody with a better hand.

I would probably have continued, but you folding was fine too. If you do plan on continuing with this hand after this flop, you definitely should directly bet this flop, hoping to shake at least somebody loose from a hand, and also hoping to get some sort of read on an opponent who stays with you.

If you check and call, you can't tell what is going on. You can't tell what a late opponent betting holds. If you more or less expected everyone else to check to the last position better who would then bet regardless of his cards, you'd do better to play for a check/raise, hoping to get one-on-one with someone holding four random cards.

So it's not simple. There is no way around knowing your opponents. Reasonable advice to beginners is to fold such hands, but if you're the best player at the table, maybe you don't want to do that.

Buzz
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