Why is Deal or No Deal not the Monte Carlo problem?
10 cards face down, Ace through T. You pick one card without exposing it, I randomly expose the other cards
We're down to two possible cards, the Ace and the 5. I offer you the choice to switch. It is a 50/50 proposition that you choose the Ace.
How do I explain that this 2.22% scenario is NOT the same as a Monte Hall version of DoND, where I am forced to expose only losing cards... making the Ace 90% to be the card remaining from the big pile that I whittled down?
What is it about one condition- being forced to exposed losers only- that makes the probabilities different in the end result?
Or, in other words, how does the fact that I randomly exposed 8 goats differ from when I intentionally exposed 8 goats?
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