[MarkD]

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"Are we ahead >60% of the time?"

Gris,

You've mentioned this twice in the past two days with regards to river analysis. I know I know where this is from but I can't think of the source and I'm having problems deriving this number. What is this a reference to and where is the source?

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I think it's nothing more than the idea that you will put in three bets when you lose and two when you win.

I'm not convinced it's 100% correct because you lose a lot of value when the river gets checked through: betting and getting called is worth a lot, almost a whole big bet I suppose, but each successive bet that goes in has a little less equity for you, especially the third one.

Guy.

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Guy,
You are absolutely correct. But, if you ignore betting out and only compare c/c vs. c/r we can analyze that case. Trying to analyze the case where we bet out and get called and raised vs our opponent checking behind a hand that would have called our bet adds a lot of complexity. I've provided a full analysis of c/c vs c/r now that I understand the number Gris was using, but I will avoid trying to analyze the betting vs. checking question for now as I'm feeling too lazy.