Re: Does anybody calculate the odds of a player getting dealt a card?
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You have the 2nd nuts, but if he has an A he takes the pot. Right now you have 3:5 pot odds. And the odds of him getting dealt an A is 2:13. The odds are in your favor to call mathematically are they not?
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The odds of him having an Ace, given the observed action in this hand, are much higher than the original odds of him being dealt an ace. (That is, unless this particular opponent will enter every single pot, and get it in with ATC on this board.)
Much more interesting things to think about:
Fraction of his limp/raise-range that includes at least one ace?
What part of his range will he play postflop in the way he did, and what fraction of this "sub-range" includes an Ace?
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