Re: River decision with two pair
I can't see how T8 is good here even 7% of the time. It's probably not good 3% of the time. I think it's a pretty clear fold.
If:
a) BB had folded and it was HU, I might cry and call
b) if I had shown a propensity to make tight laydowns and felt she was tricky/thinking enough to put in a c/r in hopes that I'd do it again, I might cry and call
But look at the hand from her perspective. You raised the flop, bet the turn into a field, and bet the river on a KT98 board. There was a call, now she checkraises to get paid off by two players in a big pot. She couldn't be screaming QJ any louder if she tried. Live female players in my experience love to slowplay the nuts on the turn and lay the hammer down when they've trapped their pray.
Not that she can't have KT or a set here too. But she does NOT expect you to fold, and she doesn't expect BB to fold either. She isn't value betting 1 pair. So if she isn't value betting a worse hand, and she isn't bluffing, what does that mean? It means she's got the goods. Like, all the time. Save the big bet.
There are lots of spots like this where we make good value bets on the river, but find out we're beat. We should be bet/folding in these spots when we don't have a hand that can withstand a c/r. This is a situation that fits. Bet/fold. If you absolutely can't fold to a river raise, then check behind. But I prefer b/f to check here because a lot of one pair hands will have to pay off.
In this spot in this situation, tens up is in the same vicinity as one pair vs. a river c/r. If you're bet/folding AK, you should be bet/folding T8.
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