[budblown]

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But my whole idea of "the long run" is because in a person's lifetime they may get the short end of the stick in situations where they are favorites to win. Ex. AK vs. J10, obviously we all know percentage wise that the AK is a slight favorite and in "the long run" AK will win more times than the J10, but the J10 will still win also. But a certain person may witness the J10 win more in their lifetime than the AK due to bad luck. That's my whole point in saying that no one will be alive long enough to see the long run. Because the percentages will play out over every hand that is ever dealt, not a person's lifetime.

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if you think the edge that AK has against J10 AIPF is small, it would blow your mind if you fully understood how small the edge players who are actually good have over bad players.


people might witness J10 win more because it's a very specific situation that even someone who plays 10k hands a week may only see once a month.

but every hand possesses the same element of chance.


i wont be alive long enough for the actual results of 2h3h all in on the flop against AA on an AA7 board to converge with the expected results. i will play maybe one hand where that happens in my lifetime.

but i will be long enough to see my overall winrate converge with my expected winrate, to a reasonable degree. and that's because i play about half a million hands a year.

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"people might witness J10 win more because it's a very specific situation that even someone who plays 10k hands a week may only see once a month.

but every hand possesses the same element of chance."
- I'm not talking about J10 specifically, I'm referring to the 3:2 (roughly) favorite that the AK is over the J10. Basically what I'm saying is in a person's life the J10 may outrun the AK at a 3:2 winrate (instead of the other way around) because a person only sees less than .0001 % of the total times that J10 is against AK. And in all the other hands that are dealt in the world the AK may be a winner at a higher winrate than 3:2 because as we all know, variance is a bitch.

"but i will be long enough to see my overall winrate converge with my expected winrate, to a reasonable degree. and that's because i play about half a million hands a year."
- Well, I'm not saying that you personally wouldn't see that, I'm saying that any random individual isn't guaranteed to see a 3:2 favorite win 3 out of 5 times. Which is basically what people refer to when they say "in the long run I'll win that AK vs. J10 (or whatever the situation is)"