[Abbaddabba]

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But my whole idea of "the long run" is because in a person's lifetime they may get the short end of the stick in situations where they are favorites to win. Ex. AK vs. J10, obviously we all know percentage wise that the AK is a slight favorite and in "the long run" AK will win more times than the J10, but the J10 will still win also. But a certain person may witness the J10 win more in their lifetime than the AK due to bad luck. That's my whole point in saying that no one will be alive long enough to see the long run. Because the percentages will play out over every hand that is ever dealt, not a person's lifetime.

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if you think the edge that AK has against J10 AIPF is small, it would blow your mind if you fully understood how small the edge players who are actually good have over bad players.


people might witness J10 win more because it's a very specific situation that even someone who plays 10k hands a week may only see once a month.

but every hand possesses the same element of chance.


i wont be alive long enough for the actual results of 2h3h all in on the flop against AA on an AA7 board to converge with the expected results. i will play maybe one hand where that happens in my lifetime.

but i will be long enough to see my overall winrate converge with my expected winrate, to a reasonable degree. and that's because i play about half a million hands a year.