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Old 03-20-2007, 02:32 AM
Pontus Pontus is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Sweden
Posts: 47
Default Re: Question on game theory

I've though about this for a while now, trying to recall all the text in "Game theory and bluffing" or what the chapter was named.

I have one question:
Why would you add them together and divide them? I'm a little behind here and have maybe forgot something.

Though:
(A very loose one, just speculations though):

To get AA before the flop is 4/52*(3/51)= about 6%?
To get AK before the flop I get it to: 8/52*(4/51)=8%?

That means that I would get AK 1/3 more then AA.

If the flop comes out 2, 7, Q with no draw and he has the queen, the pot is $10. If you would be raising with both hands, he would win more then half the times. (33% more?)

Let's say that there are no more cards to come, and the only available bet to make is $10. No more, no less and no raises. If you make that bet, he would get 2-1 odds. That means that he would figure to win more then he looses the times you have AA. (if you bluff All AK.)

If you play this hand 100 times exactly and all odds are working exactly. (you get your AA 6 times and AK 8 times).

If the odds are 2-1, you should be bluffing about 2-1 too, right? Which means that you should be bluffing once every three times, which comes down to 2 times in total (on random of course), then he would get the odds 2-1 for a call that he figures to win 1 in 3 (2-1 against). That would not be profitable but it would not be unprofitable. Though, the times he folds, you gain if you had AK.

Warning! This may be wrong
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