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Old 11-16-2007, 02:30 PM
Jazzy3113 Jazzy3113 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Mergers & Acquisitions
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Default Re: What do line movements tell us?

Someone reply to me, seems pretty good.

#1 Reason -- Soft lines (the ones that move earliest, generally). Because I use a stats-based spreadsheet system, my lines are generally in line with what the sharps bet, so I usually know which way the line is going to move -- especially with totals.
#2 Reason -- Injury updates (when I see a line movement that at first baffles me a little bit, it's often because I don't have the latest injury information.)
#3 Reason -- When public perception is mostly aligned with the sharp perception. Even if there's not a ton of value in a certain line, per se, the number will often move for the obvious reason of the majority of the money coming in on the same side. The sharps, fearful that they're on the same side as the public in a marginal situation (though one sharps marginal could be another sharps' bread and butter -- i.e. he likes it more) will get their bets in early (as they're afraid of losing even a half point of value), inducing an earlier than usual line move.
#4 Reason: Teaser-blocking. This is often what's going on when you see lopsided juice on a non-key number that suddenly jumped from 7 to 9-10 in a short amount of time. The Steelers/Ravens game is a perfect example of this. The number opened up at 7, but quickly shot up to 9.5ish with lopsided juice. It's now at 10 at Bodog and 5Dimes at +115 and +110 Steeler juice. These two books are constantly shaking in their shorts; 5Dime lines will always tell you what teasers they're afraid of. If you like the dog, it's a good opportunity to put them in a teaser -- that eliminates the -130 juice they're hanging on them. It's like getting 2-3 free points on a teaser by going the opposite side of what they're afraid of.

Line movements that happen before kickoff are just a fuzzy combination of last minute bets and sharps playing middles, for the most part.
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