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Old 09-27-2007, 07:40 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 3,633
Default Re: another useless hypo

[ QUOTE ]
buzz, i don't quite get the point of your post

[/ QUOTE ]Alas, Pete, I'm not sure you ever will understand me.

Although moot, I thought your question was interesting.

An obvious immediate difficulty is your opponents all play a bit differently and you don't know exactly what cards they're continuing with, so it's hard to know how often a baby flush will hold up.

But temporarily putting that aside, I wondered how often you'd make each type of hand. And so I jotted down some numbers on the back of an envelope.

I could have just calculated. But I often run simulations to check my calculations, and that is what I did.

And since I was running the sims to see how often the specified cards would make flushes and straight flushes, I simply ran them against one hand with four random cards. And the results checked.

My goal was to see if I could find the "rank at which the switch occured" if there indeed was a gradient (as I thought there probably might be). My original plan was to run them all. (5432, 6543, 7654, 8765, 9876, T987, JT98, QJT9, KQJT, and AKQJ), each one with the both pairs of flushed cards connected and then each one with both pairs of flushed cards unconnected.

What I noticed, although I wasn't originally looking for it, kind of surprised me. Random hands fared better, on the average, than 7654 or 8765, even though the four hands I originally used for the simulations were all double suited.

Somehow I thought those run-down straight hands were good starting hands for Omaha-high, especially if double suited.

[ QUOTE ]
-- double-suited rundown hands are the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]Evidently you still think they are. Are you certain? What makes you feel certain?

(I understand that if you hit the flop well, you'll often have a straight or flush with re-draws, and that you'll often have multiple draws - and I understand that some parrot the claim that double suited run-downs are fine starting hands - but I question many things people seem to believe, this included).

At any rate, I decided that to get significant data for the straight flushes, I would run simulations with a million separate heads-up deals, with different random cards to be distributed to the opposing hand on each of the million deals.

I thought I'd get more significant digits with a million runs than with ten thousand or a hundred thousand runs.
[ QUOTE ]
my point was just that when the cards are higher, the higher flush value is worth more than the extra straight flushes, and vice versa.

[/ QUOTE ]I think that's probably true too, but it depends on how your opponents play against you.

To try to answer your moot question, if that's all your want, the straight flush effect is generally trivial compared to the flush effect, but exactly how much depends on what hands your opponent is likely to be playing when you have one of the specified hands and catch a favorable flop.

I started with your question, but when I tried to answer it, I was led to questioning the value of 7654, double suited as a starting hand in this game. Get it? (I already know that hand stinks for Omaha-8).

Obviously how best to play a particular hand very much depends on your opponents and what works for you against them.

Buzz
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