[KurtSF]

Caught up after the overnight. Three areas I want to respond to.


(A) FTP response.

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Why do you ppl want a response from FT? They exonerated these guys. What do you expect them to say besides "after 1 month of research, we found the players to be innocent of all botting charges"

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Yes, that's what I expect, but they haven't even said that.

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It would lay some suspicions to rest. I personally don't see why they haven't done it already, but maybe FTPDough/Sean are talking with the appropriate department before they make a definitive statement.

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FTPSean is a key member of the security team. He IS the right department.

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This IS a HUGE ISSUE and Full Tilt has to handle it very delicately.

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Yeah, and I don't mind if they take their time to say "Hey 2+2, we're positive they're not bots but can't release reasons." but I expect they pop in and say "Yeah we know about this thread and these accounts and will make a comment. Try to hold back the wild speculation until then."

But no, they avoid it entirely. Since they are posting in this forum while this thread has been going, I expect they are in full blown panic mode realizing how badly they've effed this up. Just MHO. Again, I will wait for their comment.


(B) The numbers

I find DWarrior's analysis that the numbers are not the same to be suspect. I don't trust his numbers, but I can't do better. There are however, a few glaring issues.

1. His analysis of VPIP assumes that each hand is an independent event. This is not true. Each "player" is in fact an amalgamation of 9 different algorithms, one for each position. See Trebek's post that contained their positional stats. The "script" clearly has different formulas for each position. I would like to see the Standard Deviation numbers run on these positional stats.

2. His dismissal of the hypothesis ignores that one of the pieces of this hypothesis is that the players do take control from time to time, probably for coverplay. While this doesn't help the case that they are bots, it makes it very hard to dismiss the case with such a simple numerical analysis.

3. NLnut has himself admitted that they changed the "playbook" before, and might again. These 100k hands sample contain several algorithms, which will throw off the SD if you treat them as one.

And this ignores the post-flop numbers, specifically the river numbers. To any poker player those numbers are insane. I can think of no other explanation other than a computer "script" is generating such congruent numbers. Maybe another script is inputting them into the FTP client, making it a traditional bot, or maybe there are people inputting the actions in. But I am convinced that some computer program is determining the actions. Many others are as well.

Perhaps these player stats should be posted in the Probability forum. There are some smart folks in there always willing to help and their opinion, I would expect, would be enlightening. I'm at work so I doubt I'll get the chance, but I'll do it if I can.


(C) Response from nlnut and Brandon, et al

Lies. Changing stories. I think the collective BS meter has gone off the charts. We can all see the smoke and are being told there is no fire. I think we need to see the firepit before we decide this is just fog. nlnut and Brandon, please consider being VERY forthcoming. I know from previous experience that, while embarrassing, 2+2 and the zoo can admit when they made a mistake and were victims of groupthink. If you provide proof, I assure you a whole flock of 2+2ers who haven't posted yet will come out of the woodwork and join your chants calling all those of us who have participated idiots and sheep. Sounds fun, right? Help us out.

1. It won't prove anything, but it would reassure me (and probably others) greatly seeing a photo of the room the borg play in. Not proof, but seeing a livingroom with 8 monitors and 4 guys sitting around will ease concerns that this is just 16 CPUs in your closet. The sooner the better.

2. Why did your team not play together yesterday when its existence was made public? When did you find out about this thread on 2+2? Who found it first... I doubt it was Brandon who never even knew about 2+2 before yesterday, more likely nlnut or more likely still nation. Every other day you all play at the same time, concurrently, but yesterday you took turns and played sequentially. This reeks of trying to cover your tracks once you were outed. Why, for the last 3 months, do you play together every damn day and then separately on the day you're exposed?

3. How in God's name are those river numbers so similar? I know you don't want to share your playbook, but pardon my annoyance seeing as that is all we do here: share our strategies! It's 1BB/100... you didn't discover the holy grail of poker. You won't be revealing anything new here. Even if you don't divulge the exact algorithms which created those stats, at least share the CRITERIA on which the decision was made. What did you look at when you wrote the wrote the "book" on the river?

4. If you won't share the contents on the "book", please share its form. It it written in a notebook that everyone was made to memorize? Is it on giant posters on the walls where everyone can see it while they are playing? Is it in another computer or window that can be viewed while playing? Pics?

FOR TERBEK: Do you play in the evenings? nlnut has shared that he takes a dinner break at around 5 or 6 pm Eastern time. If you frequently (or semi-frequently) sign in around these times that would account for the appearance of the borg avoiding you.