[Riverrun]

one thing that's sorta interesting here is that it's his first hand and some people sit down with the itchy finger. i find it hard to believe he'd check the flop with the flush draw, esp. AKs, or with AA/KK. Maybe he checks JJ looking the crai, tho that seems sorta dumb.

so i'm thinking a big part of range here is quads, TT, or AhKx, so yeah, i think you've got your 32%. Plus the J on the river pairing the board, combined with your weak-looking slow play, make the river seem good to fire at when he misses his flush.

I don't hate checking the flop here since TT or AK may bet blank turn after you check behind flop, but you're gonna be pissed if an A or K comes off.