[Pokey]

Since this thread seems to have run its course, let me make my own comments to summarize my thinking.

On the flop I think hero has a close but +EV call. We're getting 25-to-7, or 3.5-to-1 odds, with another 11 behind that's likely going in if hero wants it there. If we're drawing to six outs that LOOKS unprofitable, but there are other considerations:

1. Hero has position. Villain might get frightened when we smooth-call the flop check-raise and give us a free card, or try to "slowplay" his top pair. If we get a free card our odds of hitting change from 6.8-to-1 to 3.1-to-1, making this safely profitable.

2. Diamonds could be good (semi-)bluffing cards for us. They're certainly not full outs, but they could easily scare a 1.2-aggro opponent into check/calling or possibly even check/folding. If 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits the board, I can check behind with mondo outs to a winner. Even better, if villain checks when a diamond hits I can make a very profitable push: getting 5-to-1 odds on what becomes a strong draw (14 outs or so) and also having some folding equity. After all, bad villains make bad choices including bad laydowns, and position gives us the information and leverage to let our opponent make a huge FTOP mistake by folding 87s to our turn push. Always be on the lookout for good bluffing opportunities: if you see them coming in advance you can build those "bluff outs" into your EV calculations.

3. Backdoor straights and flushes together count for an extra out or so.

Mostly because of the chance that villain slows down on the turn, I think the flop call is +EV.

As to the turn call, I just got a CRAPLOAD of extra outs: three offsuit queens and eight diamonds (we already had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as an out). With a potential seventeen outs and getting nearly 5-to-1, this has become a very easy call even with some hefty discounting based on the possibility that we're further behind than we thought.