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Old 11-24-2007, 12:55 AM
Genesis Genesis is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 805
Default Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

Almost feel like I'm missing something because this hand doesn't seem difficult at all. If we assume opponent has any pair or better on this flop, then we must improve. Our possible outs are 3 Aces, 3 Kings, and ~2 outs total for backdoor flush plus backdoor straight. So max 8 outs. Slightly discount this for reverse domination or better than 1 pair hands, we have somewhere around 6 to 7 outs, call it 6.5.

It is safe to assume that if we call here, our opponent is always putting the last $11 in on the turn, so our odds are 43.5 to 7 on the flop. If we had 7 clean outs this would be about even/neutral EV, but we probably have a little less, so it's -EV. Now if we could include some bluffs/semibluffs into our opponent's range, a call could have some merit, but otherwise it's a fold.

The turn is one of the best cards we could hope for when calling the flop. Easy call with the odds we're getting.
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