[Leader]

[ QUOTE ]
the probability of a bet or raise is also 30%

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can do that. Bets and raises are distinct random variables. For example, the SD of two binomial with mean .15 is about 9% greater then the SD of one with mean .01 and one with mean .29 after 10K hands.

[ QUOTE ]
sqrt((5/30)^2+(5/30)^2)*(30/30)

[/ QUOTE ]

I see where the numbers come from but I'm not sure why your doing it. I guess you're saying that the SD of one binomial RV divided by another is the sqrt of (variance of the first plus the second) times the ratio of one to the other. Conceptually I have some concerns about this. Could you link me to something that talks about that?

[ QUOTE ]
of course a better, but slightly longer way of doing is is to examine data from pt for small samples of hands and see how AF fluctuates. or better yet, write an sql query.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well different AF are going to converge at different rates so this would be kind of hard. It's not impossible or statistically unsound though.

[ QUOTE ]
as for my 100th post calculation, what assumptions are you wondering about? if you mean the relationship between wtsd and fold to bet, i got it simply by looking at pahud stats various players. these variables are strongly correlated.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I believe you looked at it and saw a good correlation, these things have some complex dynamics. It's not as if fold to bet=1-WtSD.

PS. While I have some of the traits of a PhD student (I've done grad level research; I'm taking a grad level class on financial time series), I'm only applying to be a PhD student.