[rzk]

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he's not that aggressive

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It's impossible to know this without knowing WtSD and how many hands this is over. AF is useless over less then 5K (conservatively could be 10-20K) because of how slowly it converges. Without WtSD AF has no context. 1.14AF and 34 WtSD is passive. Same AF with 50 WtSD and 40 VPiP is agro.

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i've estimated that the standard deviation for flop AF is approximately 0.6 - 0.7 for a 100 hands sample, 0.2 for a 1000 hand sample, and 0.06 - 0.07 for a 10K hands sample. the standard deviation for the total AF should be around sqrt(2) or sqrt(3) smaller, so around 0.4 for 100 hands etc.

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How exactly? I have plenty of statistics experience so don't spare the details. As far as I knew this would have to be arrived at through some fairly complex simulation.

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yes, i think remember you saying that you are doing a ph.d. in stats, so you'll probably easily find holes in my calculation [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but anyway, here's how i reasoned. this is of course an approximation, but let's say the probability of a call on the flop is 30% and the probability of a bet or raise is also 30% (more precise numbers could probably be obtained from pt or pahud but they will do for our approximation, changing them by 10% would result in a change of around 10% in our final result). In 100 flops seen, the error (i.e. standard deviation) in these frequencies will be around 5%. so the error of the ratio will be around sqrt((5/30)^2+(5/30)^2)*(30/30)=5/30*sqrt(2)=0.24. 100 flops seen means approximately 250 hands for a vpip 40 guy. so in 100 hands the sd is 0.24*sqrt(250/100)~0.4. then i just increased it in an ad hoc way to 0.6 to account for the effects of various approximations (like the fact that frequencies of calls and bets/raises are not independent variables, for samples with frequencies of calls higher than average the frequencies of bets/raises are somewhat lower than average, which should increase the sd of the ratio slightly).

of course a better, but slightly longer way of doing is is to examine data from pt for small samples of hands and see how AF fluctuates. or better yet, write an sql query.

as for my 100th post calculation, what assumptions are you wondering about? if you mean the relationship between wtsd and fold to bet, i got it simply by looking at pahud stats various players. these variables are strongly correlated.