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Old 10-12-2007, 12:55 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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Default Re: Every [censored] time

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he's not that aggressive

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It's impossible to know this without knowing WtSD and how many hands this is over. AF is useless over less then 5K (conservatively could be 10-20K) because of how slowly it converges. Without WtSD AF has no context. 1.14AF and 34 WtSD is passive. Same AF with 50 WtSD and 40 VPiP is agro.

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i've estimated that the standard deviation for flop AF is approximately 0.6 - 0.7 for a 100 hands sample, 0.2 for a 1000 hand sample, and 0.06 - 0.07 for a 10K hands sample. the standard deviation for the total AF should be around sqrt(2) or sqrt(3) smaller, so around 0.4 for 100 hands etc.

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How exactly? I have plenty of statistics experience so don't spare the details. As far as I knew this would have to be arrived at through some fairly complex simulation.

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as for the effect of wtsd on aggression, i actually wrote up a little calculation on that for my 100th post. unfortunately i can't find it for some reason as the search only gives me my 200 latest posts. the bottom line was that the AF for a wtsd 45 guy should be adjusted by about 10% compared to a wtsd 35 guy.

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post11035889

Frankly, that thread is confusing. I don't follow the logic. Plus you don't say how exactly you came to the underlying assumptions.
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