[jesse8888]

Wow. Clearly like two of you had a freaking clue what I was talking about. Upon reading my post, I can see why. Let's try an example:

Suppose you have three coins, two of which are loaded. Specifically, coin A lands heads up 25% of the time, coin B is fair, and coin C lands heads up 75% of the time. Now suppose you don't know which coin is which, and you pick one up at random.

Now suppose you flipped the coin 8 times, and it landed heads up on only 2 trials. What is the probability that you have coin A on your hands? Pretty high, right? Yeah, pretty high, but not 100%. If you think it's 100%, well....please don't click the reply button. If you can teach me how to find the probability, please do.

So now let's suppose I'm Joe Bloggs poker player, and I have a win rate. It's either 0 big bets per hour, .5 big bets per hour, or 1 big bet per hour; only problem is, I don't know which one it is. So I go out and I play 170 hours and end up winning 142 big bets. If the world were so simple and discreet, it would be the exact same problem as the coins. The world's not discrete, so this version of the problem will involve an integral or two, but the concept is the same.

Have I been a little more clear?