View Single Post
Old 11-27-2007, 08:25 AM
GeeBeeQED GeeBeeQED is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 109
Default Re: Determining the probability that you\'re a winning player

Purchase a PDA or a phone with a spreadsheet program. Track game type, location, $ in, $ out, $ net profit/loss, hours played.

If your not keeping track of what your doing then I'd say there is about a 99% chance your not a winning player.

What is the point in running some long drawn out calculation to deturmine how tall you are or what color your eyes are when you can measure these things directly. Your either winning more than your losing or not. If your late to work too often, did your boss go through some long drawn out calculation to arrive at this conclusion?

If you muck about a keyboard long enough, you can figure out all kinds of ways to feel good about a result that you havn't measured.

In your question you say "...are a winning player?...." Think about this. Your asking how to calculate history. Either you have been or you have not been.

It might be an interesting question mathmatically to try to extrapolate how an adjustment in play might effect long term the future. However, trying to figure this out after the fact shows your also not playing out of a bankroll. Oh, it's so easy to chalk it up to a bad night, get a dozen Benjamins out of the hiding place and go after those boys again. Some ups, some downs and a month or two later after may winning sessions we are back in our hidding place again retrieving more Benjamins. Sound firmiliar to anybody?

Hey, I know the feeling, your surrounded by a bunch of players playing terrible and you want to feel like a winner. I want to say "I'm a winning player". Yet it's a most complicated game and the patience to work out a profit is hard to come by. Make a real measurment. When a years gone by and you've got 12 months to look at, you can begin to decide if your a long term winner or not. It's an illusive goal and probably only 5% get there. Most of us, in fact probably most of the players lurking on this forum are in the other 95%. There is no shame in being there. Only shame in lingering there.

Reply With Quote