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#5
11-27-2007, 12:20 AM
 pzhon Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 4,515
Re: Determining the probability that you\'re a winning player

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I play live limit texas holdem and would like to determine the probability that I am a winning player. What information do I need to do this?

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You can't determine this without a prior distribution. If your prior distribution doesn't make sense, your results may not make sense. You can estimate how likely your results are for each win rate, and update this to get your new distribution for your win rate.

What you might be looking for instead is a confidence interval. A rough 95% confidence interval is your observed rate +- 2 standard deviations. The standard deviation of your observed rate after n independent periods is sqrt(n) times the standard deviation for a single period.

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I have heard that for solid, TAG play the standard deviation for an hour of play is around 15 big bets. Is that true?

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No, not in most games. It's usually 8-10 big bets. The figure of 15 BB is the standard deviation per 100 hands in an online full ring game (or a very tight full ring live game). It's about 10% higher shorthanded.