[kerze]

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A 3 card 7 will only come around once every 23 hands. The antes and bring-ins will eat you up

[/ QUOTE ] I'm curious about the source of the stat - from the Mike Caro statistics, it seems like you get a 7 or better every eleven hands.

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You're right prax - its actually once every 10 hands. I was doing the calculation late at night and I don't know how I screwed it up. Maybe it seems like once every 23 hands.

For your 1st card you have a 28/52 chance of getting a 7 or lower. For the 2nd card it is 24/51 for getting another card 7 or lower that doesn't pair your 1st. For the 3rd card is is 20/50 for getting yet another one. So (28*24*20)/(52*51*50) = 10.13% which works out to about once very 10 hands. A three card 6 is once every 17 hands. and a three card 5 is once every 35 hands.

This actually could change my answer a bit but still by the time you get another 3 card 7, your chips may be pretty low from the antes and if you do double up its not by much. Of course you don't have to have a 3 card 7 to play - if I have (aT)2 against opponents who have upcards of 9 or better I'm completing with my short stack