[Gonso]

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Gonso says you can't use pokerstove to arrive at this conclusion because you can't take into acount folds.

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That's not quite what I said.

You can use Pokerstove to calculate your equity against a given range, but you must also account for the times you aren't called. For example, say it's folded to you on the SB and you push with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Then let's say that the BB will call you with the top 15% of hands according to Pokerstove.

Okay, your hand in this case will be about a 57-43 dog when called. However, since you will be called only 15% of the time, the other 85% percent of the time you simply take his BB and whatever antes are out there. This adds to the expectation of you shove, how much only depends on the amount of the antes, blinds, and stacks. If you just go by pokerstove range calcs alone, how do you account for all the free money you get when he folds?

Let's say in this case, you have t4k chips at a 9-handed table, and the BB has you covered. The blinds are 300/600 with 100 antes. After posting, you have t4600 left and the pot is t1,800. Now, if you have that A7s and shove (and he calls with that range above), 85% of the time you simply take in an t1,800 pot. When you are called, you'll have 43% equity in that t10,900 pot (on average), which is hardly a bad spot considering all the money already in the pot and your shortstack situation.

I'm harping on SNGPT here because it's a better tool for the job. You can put in ranges and it will account for the times they can't call, and the value of the blinds and antes. It will give you the EV of jamming various hands against various ranges and various opponents.

And phzon can speak for himself but it sounded like he was referring to card removal effects. That is, if you HAVE an ace, there are only three aces left for your opponents to have. So, you'll run into AK or AJ or whatever less often when you shove with A7.