<u>West Virginia at
South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)</u>
This would be that POTW I was talking about. I didn't get the very best price here in terms of juice, but I'm legitimately scared that Dr. Bob's going to hop on this tomorrow and drive the line way down.
Anyway, if you use 3 points for home advantage, Sagarin has the Mountaineers favored by 6.5 here, so the line wouldn't appear to be too far off. However, I think this is a case where using a constant for home advantage is a mistake. USF is 34-8 at home and 15-21 away SU the last 7 years and 16-10 ATS at home vs. 17-14 ATS away over the same period. This is a team that gets more out of their crowd than most. Factor in that it's a night game and possibly USF's most important home game ever, and the fans and players are going to be jacked up. I think it was MyTurn who had research to show that home advantage means more for closely matched teams, especially slight dogs, and with all those factors working together, home advantage is going to be worth more like 5 points. It would be even higher, but WVU tends to play well on the road and covers spreads there better than they do at home.
Meanwhile, the matchups are good for USF too. Their defense has been fantastic against both the run and the pass this year which is more important than you think. While WVU tends to run the ball
a lot when able, this is mainly due to the fact that they're often leading and other teams can't stop them. They actually rank 10th in passing efficiency, and Pat White is more than capable as a pocket passer if the running game bogs down. Well, I think it will and when it does, USF should be able to stop the pass too. Last year, with both Slaton and White in the lineup, USF held the Mountaineers to 3.6 ypc and return 7 starters on that side of the ball this year. Their losses in the linebacking corps should be countered by WVU's losses on the O-line and the talent should be about even to where it was last year on that side of the ball.
On the other side of the ball, USF returns 9 starters from last year's team including QB Matt Grothe and 3 of the top 3 receivers. That passing attack was 22/30 for 279 vs. West Virginia last year, and should enjoy similar success this game as the Mountaineer secondary has continued to look vulnerable, giving up 245 yards to Western Michigan and 266 to Marshall.
Still the Bulls attack isn't really explosive and while they'll put up some points, they can't win a shootout. They did have a little bit of a break last season as West Virginia had just found out that they couldn't go to the Orange Bowl when Rutgers lost to Cincy and they had to be disappointed. The Mountaineers are still the better team and I expect them to pull out the victory. If I was forecasting, I'd say 28-27 which should leave a very healthy edge for the Bulls to cover the spread.
Oh, last but not least, this game definitely passes the BSP pundit test. I was playing some live 2/5 NL on Monday and people were talking about who'd win the national title and how good WVU was. (Note: I live thousands of miles from West Virginia.) I mentioned how they'd have a tough game against USF, and someone said "wonder what the line will be on that one". I said it was 7, and two people registered audible surprise that the line was that low. With how many "sharps" appear to be on USF, the only reason I can think of that the line's only dropped a half a point is either that there are squares already on WVU or that there are people betting WVU with the express intent of middling it when the squares get a hold of the line. I definitely like USF in this one.
<u>
Mississippi State +13.5 at South Carolina (Risk 1.03u to win 1u)</u>
Liked
CFN's analysis here on the matchups favoring MSU, and just generally think that it will be hard for South Carolina to focus here after losing a huge game to LSU and losing their defensive leader for the season in Jasper Brinkley.
Also, Mississippi State's still a little bit underrated due to the opener vs. LSU where they turned it over 7 times. They look to be a legit Top 40 team and should be able to compete with the Gamecocks. I think the public's underrating the Bulldogs and will be happy to take SC giving less than 2 TDs.