Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
Oddly enough, I've also seen reverse tilt on the show. Someone recently had an offer of $107k... the average case was worth about $135k, so it was a reasonable 80% of EV offer. The contestant chose to keep playing though.
In play was the 750k, 200k, and five small numbers.
She then eliminated the 200k case. The next offer was only $50,000... only 40% of the value of the average case. The loss had affected her, and she decided to take the deal.
As they played through the "what ifs", her next case was a small number, and the offer was $120k... back up to the 80% level. If she had continued, she would have had a 5/6 chance to more than double her money.
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