[Alobar]

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They seems to have pretty high variance, but good value imo.

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high variance?
4 out of 10 get a seat.
I mean, yeah you can go 10 straight and only win 1 or 2 i guess. But I really don't think this structure is high-variance.

If it was instead 1 in 10 wins $860 or 1 in 20 wins $1720 or something like that then I would view them as high variance.

They are definitely different types of SNG's though and some interpretation of situations needs to be undertaken.
It's not just about your specific EV on a particular hand when on the bubble. It's about reading the whoe situation. Even if you are shortest stack it can sometimes be prudent to wait and see if someone else decides to go crazy with AQ and knock themselves out.
Obviously getting a monster chip-lead has far less value than in most tourney situations because 4th place pays the same as 1st.


Maybe I've just run well in the handful of these that I've played and that will inevitably lead to cockyness and that I've somehow figured them all out completely.
But there have been very few of these that I've played where I've considered the field to be 'tough'. Lots of mistakes, that probably aren't so terrible in a regular SNG but really stick out in the different pay-structure of these SNG's.

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The ones ive played in, everyone plays so god damn slow, and is so freaking nitty, that after like 15 hands no one has lost any significant amount of chips, and the blinds are high enough that its push/fold poker. Even tho it seems everyone is terrible, you are still going to get busted out 5 thru 10 alot when your 70/30 coinflip (this is stars) misses.