Re: pair + draw vs spewtard
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a) this guys has not 3-bet pf one time; surely this means this player would rather "see a flop" w/ AK/AQ type hands (in fact - given the "probabilities" he most assuredly has had AK already this session and chose NOT to 3bet it);
b) in previous 3-bet pots this player chose to bet like half-pot when checked to when he held a questionable pair. From a reads standpoint this seems to indicate that this player bets weakly when he is unsure of his hand. This doesn't correlate w/ him betting full-pot w/ A-high in this hand.
Granted, even discounting AK we have 40% equity - so this can never be terrible. But couldn't this be a situation of OP unnecessarily stacking off as a dog? Maybe i'm wrong, but I think villain rarely has AK here given history/description.
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You're logic is off here. How many hands have we seen where doesn't 3-bet preflop? 75? 250? 600? You can't make any assumptions about how villain plays AK preflop based on a small sample of hands. Maybe he had AK 3 times already, but opened with them each time.
Also, the "probabilities" say that it's more likely he's already had QQ+ than AK this session, so maybe he just likes to see a flop with his big pairs.
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