Re: Bayes Theorem, and epdaws where have you gone?????
The way I've always applied it to poker is thinking about what villains range is at any point in a hand, but more importantly what the consequences are of each range (monster, good, bluff catcher, air) with respect to your EV. Even if you put %monster at just ~15% early in a hand you can't ignore it when that % goes way up as a big pot develops, hence the concepts of pot control, deep stacks etc. The big appeal of shortstacking (even 50BB) is you can equitably disregard that 15% and go to value town vs the much broader range you're more likely against.
On the other side if youre the one with the monster youre not concerned with the %air part by getting cute (unless of course very aggro beyond small ball range), rather the solid part of their range where villain isnt looking to play a big pot. But you dont allow them to play a medium pot, you put the onus on them to make an astute laydown to outplay you by making sure $$$ goes in every street. Just some random thoughts....
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