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Old 11-11-2007, 11:14 PM
pococurante pococurante is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: VA
Posts: 138
Default Re: Can Somebody Quantify this Bad Run?

Can you get PokerEV, and post your luck graph? I'd be interested in seeing it.

I can't provide any exact results here... for instance an opponent might have 6 outs, but I don't know if there are cards that could come that would have him drawing dead, etc. The software could provide detailed info.

Out of boredom I'll throw together some semi accurate opponent percentages here...

9, 13.5, 7, 48, 25, 25, 48, 9, 52, 52, 91, 9.

Opponent's average chance to win: 32.37%.

Just to come up with some rough numbers, say you were averaging 67.5% to win all of these hands. You expect to win 8/12 hands, instead you won 2/12.

sqrt{(12*0.675*0.325)}
sqrt(2.63)
standard deviation = 1.62
expected wins = 8.1
actual wins = 2
deviations = 3.76

These numbers are definitely not exact, but according to this you're about 1 in 1000 to run that bad. So yeah, your luck was pretty terrible.
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