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Old 12-26-2006, 03:51 PM
TFGoose TFGoose is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Ohio
Posts: 579
Default Re: Opinions Needed: Late Game Help

Well, first off, the play is definitely not 'call'. Just to get that out of the way first. So, the choice is between pushing and folding. Let's look at the numbers:

If you fold, there will be about 58K in the pot, and will cost someone 35K to call. The BB can play for 23K. With his stack, he will probably call that blind getting 2.5 to 1. However, that doesn't really concern you since you're out of the hand.

If you push, there will be about 128,000 in the pot, and it will cost 70K for someone to call. The BB can call for 58K. Here, the BB still is getting over 2 to 1 on his money, but it costs him 25% of his stack to play.

I think we can reasonably say that the BB, MP1, and perhaps the SB are the only stacks who you have to worry about calling you on pot odds alone. The rest are too short to risk that much of their stack on such a call. You'd like to play this hand against UTG all by himself. He's desperate and about to go through the blinds, so you can discount his holding quite a bit. You are only really in trouble against 99+, and AT+, and his range is much wider than that. So you really just need to ask yourself two questions....

One, how likely is it that one of the bigger stacks will call, risking between 20 and 25% of their stacks?

Two, how do I feel about folding a suited Ace here and losing 20400 more chips in the next 3 hands?

I think your stack size ends up being the most compelling issue here. Your position blows having to push through all those bigger stacks, but you're going to be a lot more vulnerable than you are now in just a few hands. So I say push it in there and hope for the best. It would be great if you had another 30K or so just to really dissuade pot odds calls from the bigger stacks, but oh well. Folding will have you at just 49800 chips in 3 hands, giving you even less fold equity than you have now.

I'm happy to hear other opinions on this, but I think I push.

--TFGoose
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