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Old 08-30-2006, 01:59 PM
luckyharr luckyharr is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 420
Default Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post

[ QUOTE ]
I thought 33 and 58 would yield .2, which was kind of the point I was getting at.

To deomnstrate, though, let's say that the average hand that goes to showdown has 9BB in it. Player A has a VPIP of 26% and is 33/58 for showdowns. Player B has a VPIP of 26% and is 40/50 for showdowns.

Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, I think you edited that to "slight favorite" before I could quote. With that change I agree with your statement. Basically, it's close. The only point I was trying to make is that if I'm seeing more showdowns I must win at least one of them to justify the expense. You are right that you'd rather be 33/61 than 40/50, but I think 33/58 and 40/50 end up being pretty close, just stylistically different. I imagine you bet/fold more than me and I check/call more than you.
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