Re: Week Five: preliminary pick for arbitrage
Making another formal preshow recommendation:
.1 unit on Pickler to leave this week at +1000.
So that gives us:
.1 unit on Paris at +1100
.1 unit on Pickler at +1000
Yes, obviously wishing i'd taken advantage of the +1800 that I originally posted. I knew her value was going to fall, I just didn't expect it would fall so quickly. Its been around +1000 most of the week.
I'll re-evaluate after the show tonight.
"season" record: 3-1 on elimination picks. +2.4381 units
Paris has dropped down to around +850 so hopefully you were able to get in at the higher level. I'd recommend moving on "to win a unit" at +850 now even so, as its going to fall significantly post-show with her expected performance struggles.
I look for a bottom three this week of Bucky, Paris, and Pickler. Not yet sure if Bucky can do enough to get voted off or not, but having Paris and Pickler at 10-1 is going to be a good position when they're in the bottom three.
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