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Old 07-01-2007, 09:35 PM
RedManPlus RedManPlus is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Toronto
Posts: 238
Default Re: Article Request: Analysis of Bots

I'm both a software engineer and Pro Trader...
And am successfully running Automated Tradings Systems on the NYSE.

The spread of Poker Bots...
Is somewhat analogous to explosion in "algorithmic" or "black box" trading on stock exchanges...
Where Trading Bots now account for > 50% of all volume.

So what has been the effect?

Not much...
Algorithmic trading infrastructure is VERY expensive...
And, imo, the "black boxes" are just playing a Zero Sum Game among themselves...
Where 10% of the "black boxes" win and 90% of the "black boxes" lose...
But the ULTRA HIGH COST has created a sort of benign equilibrium.

A key problem is the state of leading edge AI.

Current AI cannot come anywhere close to replicating the high level, multi-faceted decision making of a Pro Trader. So the most successful "black boxes" are actually manned and "overidden" by Pro Traders that cost, say, 100K/year. And the guys coding the software make > 100K/year on Wall Street.

Poker is different...

But it's KEY to understand...
That Bots can be severely limited by applying simple "prove you are human" techiques we are all familiar with. This inconveniences customers and scares them... so Poker Sites have chosen the correct financial strategy: ignore Bots and enjoy the rake they produce.

But once things evolve and there is an actual clamp down on Bots... Good-bye to simple, amateur Bots. Only the Top Bots designed to be manned by a Poker Pro will be viable... and will be coded by guys that would be making > 100K/year on Wall Street.

Is there really a big difference between:

(a) 4 Pros versus 6 Donks at a table

OR

(b) 2 Very Expensive Pro-manned Bots + 2 Pros vesus 6 Donks at a table ???

Not really. Everybody relax. Nothing really changes.
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