[Bona]

*grunch*

There are 14 cards, 5 of which are spades, in the range you put him on. He holds 2 of those cards. So it appears to me he has a spade about 70% of the time. There is no other hand in his range that beats us so we win 3 of 10 times.

If we assume villain will bet when we check and we check/call down we are putting up 2 to win 15. So in ten trials we win 45 and lose 14 bets. Nice work when we can get it. Call down looks good. If we are wrong and he checks it through. I don't hate that either.

Bet/fold would only be better if we think villain will fold WHEN HOLDING A SPADE more often than he would bet into our check without a spade. I can't calculate that but I somehow I doubt it is the best play. Maybe when I read the other responses I will find out I am wrong about that. Anyway it is read dependent and reads are only so accurate at best.

Adding cards to his range does change the odds incrementally but I don't think it reaches the level of changing our play. The pot is too large for that.

The river card can change the outcome of this hand and never to our benefit. On the other hand there are several cards that can beat us. Even though that is an argument for betting, I make this, overall, a must call, can't bet situation. Not real close IMO.

Now I will read the responses of the real poker players and learn something [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

EDITED TO ADD: Looks like I miscounted. There are 4 spades in his range not 5 so odds are about 55% not 70%. Improves our call down odds. In ten trials we win ~67.5 BB and lose ~11 BB. Even better.