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Old 07-14-2006, 07:55 AM
cartman cartman is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Default Re: a few interesting river stats

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I mean, an argument could be made that something in the 50's is ideal. 51% would probably be too low because you couldn't overcome situations where you were raised.

On the whole, isn't 75% too high, and indicative of the fact that we're not betting/raising for value enough?

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This is incorrect. I know because I made the same mistake several months ago [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Someone (I think JeffW) politely informed me that the reason this stat isnt in the 50s is that although the MINIMUM probability we need to be ahead when called is 55% or whatever, the AVERAGE probability we are ahead when making correct value bets is the average of every situation. The worst of this family of correct situations are the ones you are thinking of, the 55% type. But the best of this family is when we have the absolute nuts on the river, the 100% type. There are of course many in between.
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